Análise do comportamento operacional de reservatórios com redes neurais artificiais: O caso de Luiz Gonzaga, Brasil
Keywords:
regra de operação de reservatórios, emulação da operação de reservatórios, simulação de sistemas hídricos antropizadosAbstract
Reservoirs are operated following specific policies, constrained by hydrological and structural conditions. When modeling antropized water systems with reservoirs, the incorporation of existing operating policies is important to improve model capability. However, operating policies are not always available or easy to identify within large-scale multi-reservoir systems, where operation derives from large number of variables and constraints rather than a clear-cut local objective function. This study applies Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) with the objective of analyzing if local variables (inflow, storage level, and evaporation) of a sub-system part of a large-scale coordinated multi-reservoir system are sufficient predictors of the operational behavior (release decisions) in a daily time step. The sub-system includes the Luiz Gonzaga and Sobradinho reservoirs. Results pointed to a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) of 0.67 to 0.74 and a coefficient of determination (r2) of 0.75, showing that we can predict the sub-system operational behavior most of the time but with some outflow peaks under predicted.
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