MÉTODOS PARA ESTIMATIVA DE LIMIARES DE INUNDAÇÃO EM GRANDES BACIAS
Keywords:
limiares de inundação, sistemas de alerta de cheia, previsão hidrológicaAbstract
The present work aimed to develop and compare methods for estimating flood thresholds for multiple river stretches in large hydrographic basins. For this purpose, different rivers located in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS) and Santa Catarina (SC) were used as a case study. The proposed methodology drew on the use of statistical parameters, estimating the return period and permanence of flood levels already known in 23 gauges. Based on the results presented, the most consistent values for most cases were achieved with 1.5 years of return period, however small differences were found when adopting 2 years of return period. The statistical method of permanence with a value of 1.7% also presented results with similar performance. Therefore, the referred statistical values exhibit the smallest probable error for estimating flood thresholds, and can be applied in the vast majority of the cases studied.. For better coherence in specific cases, when identifying a hydrological behavior influenced by flow regulation, empirically it was found that increased return periods could be adopted for values in the order of 5 years and permanence below 0.5%.It is worth to emphasize the importance of a previous assessment of the river hydrological behavior in which the threshold has not yet been estimated, before the return period or permanence methods used to estimate the desired flood threshold is consolidated. It is noteworthy that the methodologies developed and compared, mainly considering statistical parameters, sought to represent in a broad and coherent way the flood thresholds estimates, especially aiming to be applied in gauges without previous definition and hydrological models that have in multiple stretches of rivers in large hydrographic basins.
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