Impacto das mudanças climáticas nas vazões mínimas de referência de pequenas bacias hidrográficas na Amazônia Legal e dentro do arco do desflorestamento
Abstract
The objective was to analyze the influence of climate change on the minimum reference flows of two small catchments located in the Legal Amazon (Cerrado biome) and also in the Arch of Deforestation. The scenarios used were RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, defined during the 5th IPCC Report, as these are the main optimistic and realistic greenhouse gas emission scenarios in the future, being projected in the future precipitation of small catchments. Precipitation was obtained via the PROJETA platform. The precipitation data were used as input for a rainfall-runoff model to simulate flow duration curves and, consequently, minimum future reference flows for the small catchments analyzed. The results showed that in both scenarios, the minimum flow rate tends to decrease significantly, even reaching zero. Thus, in view of the drastic reduction in the flow, it is necessary to pay attention from decision makers to projects for the management, use and capitation of water that are sustainable. These projects must aim to face the climate crisis to protect populations, especially the most vulnerable.
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