On four fundamental principles to guide the use of hydrological models in mapping priority areas in watershed revitalization programs
Keywords:
hydrological models, additionality potential, epistemic uncertainty, priority areasAbstract
Nesta Nota Técnica justificamos e exemplificamos quatro princípios que acreditamos serem fundamentais para guiar o uso de modelos hidrológicos no mapeamento de áreas prioritárias em programas de revitalização de bacias hidrográficas. Os princípios são: (1) a adicionalidade de serviços ecossistêmicos; (2) a influência da topografia; (3) a escala espacial no nível dos lotes rurais, e; (4) a incerteza epistêmica da modelagem. Com a aplicação do modelo PLANS na bacia do Arroio Castelhano (RS), exploramos o conceito de anomalia hidrológica, a importância da área de contribuição variável, a relevância de diferenciar lotes rurais e que os modelos hidrológicos não são “bolas de cristal”, apresentando bandas de incerteza no tempo e no espaço. A informação da incerteza, no entanto, pode ser muito útil na definição de um índice de prioridade dos lotes rurais.
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