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Studies on water security are essential in the face of climate change, which can significantly alter water availability. In this context, hydrological models play a crucial role in water resource management by enabling simulations that guide decisions on predictability and basin management. This study aims to contribute to the water management of Nova Friburgo – RJ, a mountainous region covered by the Atlantic Forest, by assessing future flow trends between 2030 and 2060. Using the SWAT hydrological model and future climatic data on precipitation and temperature from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were projected. Climate estimates, compared to climatological normals, suggest a drier and warmer future, with slightly wetter winters. The trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test, with 95% confidence, indicated that streamflows during the driest seasonal period tend to decrease over the years in the SSP2-4.5 scenario, characterizing a concerning situation for the municipality's water security.
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